Geopolitics

The current wave of right-wing populism in the West is a far cry from historical and progressive populisms in the developing world.  It is narrow minded, reactionary, persecutory, and oblivious to consequences.  This essay explores the geopolitical consequences of the trend.

The new American administration faces the most significant shift in great-power relations since the collapse of the Soviet Union.  Since the administration represents a change in regime in the US, the geopolitical consequences will be momentous as well.  They will be sold as an American revival, but may amount to a belligerent and fitful decline.

For the first time in decades in Cuba the New Year will be a year without Fidel.  The dawn comes and he is no longer there.  But life goes on towards an uncertain future.  Other dawns and other roosters sing today.  They bring back to mind a song from the Spanish civil war:  When the black rooster crows, / It's because the day has ended, / If the red rooster crowed, / Another would crow too.

The recent presidential election in the United States has led not just to a change in government but a change of regime. We could characterize it as a type of moderate authoritarianism moderated by sloppiness. This article analyzes some of the internal contradictions of Trump’s regime and its repercussions in the geopolitical sphere. Tensions will increase around the whole globe and the decadence of the American empire will accelerate.

From a historical point of view, the conflagration of Middle East (Syria, Iraq, Libya, Afghanistan, Palestine and Iran, among other participants) does not offer an analogy with other periods and it is not a paragon. It is something worse. Categorically, I would say it is a continuation.