Opinion Sur

Reflections

2013-05-22T17:02:55Z

About the glow every person casts
About the Catholic Church
About the fifth economy of the world

About the glow every person casts

Even the shadiest men cast some sort of glow. And few are those that cannot teach us something. Our big mistake lies in trying to get from each of them in particular the virtues they do not possess, neglecting the ones they do.

Marguerite Yourcenar

About the Catholic Church

We come from a grim and strong winter. Now comes spring. Francisco is a shepherd close to the people, who does not come as a teacher to dictate doctrine but to raise faith.

Leonardo Boff

About the fifth economy of the world

Argentina and Brazil together are the fifth economy of the world, with a GDP of almost three trillion dollars and a domestic market of nearly 250 million consumers.

Claudio Scaletta

Initiatives

2013-05-22T16:50:34Z

Innovative medical training
National Rural Tourism Forum
Africa: capital flight and odious debt

Innovative medical training

The University of La Matanza in Argentina offers an innovative medical program: it aspires to excellence, it is health oriented, doctor's training permanently combines the capacity to learn and research and it facilitates a preference to work in social and territorial environments where its presence is most needed. The program's singularities are (i) integrated and student-focused academic curricula, (ii) articulation with medical clinic from the beginning, (iii) communitarian orientation, (iv) reflective practice and (v) learning based on problems.

For more information

National Rural Tourism Forum

To be carried out on May 15th 2013, it aims is to position the activity developing its potential for growth, its capacity to generate employment and redeeming the democratizing impact it has on tourism since it distributes income in every corner of the country.

For more information

Africa: capital flight and odious debt

Africa lost 1.6 trillion dolars in capital flight and odious debt over forty years with the connivance of big banks according to new research.

More information

The “Chinese Dream” and its Challenges

Martin Khor — 2013-05-22T16:44:44Z

Last week saw the completion of China's leadership transition, with Xi Jinping as the new President and Li Keqiang the new Premier. President Xi set the world speculating when he spoke of “striving to achieve the Chinese dream of great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.” One Western newspaper commented it was a collective national dream, contrasting it, unfavourably, to the “American dream” of giving individuals equal opportunities. But to the Chinese, the promised renaissance of the nation is a reminder of the collective humiliation during the colonial era and the “dream” to win back its previous place as a world leader in science, technology, economy and culture.

High growth in recent decades has boosted China's economy and confidence. Nevertheless China's new leaders face many serious challenges ahead which need to be tackled if the “Chinese dream” is to be realized.

First is the need to fight widespread corruption. Making this his main priority, President Xi warned that corruption could lead to “the collapse of the Party and the downfall of the state.” New leaders usually vow to get rid of corruption, but few have succeeded. If President Xi wins this battle, it would be a great achievement.

Second are administrative procedures and abuse of official power that cause both inefficiency and injustices right down to the local level. At his first press conference, premier Li promised to shake up the system, acknowledging the difficulties of “stirring vested interests.” He promised that a third of the 1,700 items that require the approval of government departments would be cut. Frugality is to be the new hallmark. Spending will be reduced in government offices, buildings, travel and hospitality (no more official large banquets!) and the savings will be redirected to social development.

Third are the complexities of running China's large and complicated economy. China aims to grow continuously by 7-8 per cent a year. The rest of the global economy is however in a bad shape. The country has thus to shift from export-led to domestic-demand led growth, and from investment-led to consumption-led domestic growth. Implementation of this new growth strategy, which the government has accepted, is not easy. There are also the challenges of managing the currency, the huge foreign reserves and the regulation of capital flows, with the aim of having finance serve the real economy while not becoming a source of new instability. In foreign trade, China has been very successful in building up a powerful export machine. But growth of exports to the West is slowing due to the near-recession, and new forms of protection (such as tariff hikes using anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures) are increasingly used on Chinese imports. At the same time, other developing countries are becoming wary of their increasing imports of cheap Chinese goods. How can China be sensitive to their concerns and strive for more balance and mutuality of benefits?

Fourth are China's social problems. Poverty is still significant in many areas. Social disparities have worsened, with wide gaps in rich-poor and urban-rural incomes that are politically destabilizing. Redistributing income towards the lower income groups can meet two goals: reducing social inequalities and providing the demand base for consumption-led growth. The policies can include wage increases, government provision of social services and income transfers to the poor.

Fifth is the need to tackle China's environmental crises, which include emerging water scarcity, increased flooding, climate change and urban air pollution. Recent studies show the health dangers of the worsening air pollution, including links to the 2.6 million who die from cancers annually. Many of the protests in China in recent years have been over environmental problems, including polluting industries located near communities. How can China integrate ecological concerns into its development strategy?

Sixth is China's foreign relations. President Xi last week reaffirmed China's principle of “peaceful development” and that the country would never seek hegemony. There is need to settle the different claims by China and other East Asian countries on the South China Sea in a proper and peaceful way and build confidence of its neighbours on this principle. China, which is still very much a developing country in terms of per capita income and other characteristics, also need to stand with the rest of the developing world in international negotiations and relations. At the same time, it is expected to provide preferences and special assistance to poorer countries and its investors abroad are expected to be socially and environmentally responsible. Most difficult for China is the ability to manage foreign relations with developed countries, especially the United States. China is a rising or risen power, and is viewed with some envy as a rival by those who fear losing their previous dominance. Maintaining political stability with these powers is important; but of course this does not depend on China alone.

The above are only some of the hurdles facing China on its road to realize its dream of rejuvenation. As with any dream, it is not impossible to achieve but the road is long and difficult.

www.triplecrisis.com

Paradigms that condition the course of global economy

Carlos Garramón — 2013-05-22T16:40:00Z

This article highlights four emerging paradigms that carry significant weight on the course of global economy: (i) the fragmentation and geographical dispersion of the capitalist production process, (ii) the universalization and homogenization of consumption patterns, (iii) production and consumption's subordination to financial capital and (iv) the crisis and reformulation of the Welfare State.

1. The fragmentation and geographical dispersion of the capitalist production process

Over the past few decades, there has been a real seismic shift in the global production process. Hundreds of large companies in the US and some European ones have transferred part or large part of their production and distribution chain towards China, India and other Asian countries, induced by the competitive advantages provided by low wages, human resources of acceptable standards in terms of technical and managerial aspects, and a domestic market undergoing clear expansion in the receiving countries. This has generated the fragmentation and geographical dispersion of the capitalist production process, which has become a ‘denationalized' process that sets apart and fragmentizes the notions of ‘nation' and ‘industry'; the category that dominated the analysis of industrial capitalism, decision making and generation of policies for decades is transformed: ‘the national industry'. This profound structural change constitutes a new paradigm that will be consolidated as the industrial internationalization and its fragmentation are facilitated with accumulated experience, technology and breakthroughs regarding communications, transport and logistics.

2. Universalization and homogenization of consumption patterns

In concordance with the internationalization and fragmentation of the production process, a process of universalization and homogenization of consumption patterns at a global scale has developed. This tendency has emerged long ago but has been accelerated in the last decade, mostly encouraged by the expansion of the middle class in the emerging countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America. Merely in China alone in the past thirty years 700 million people have overcome poverty and integrated the middle class.

The new middle class expansion phenomenon in several emerging countries is the structural base for the globalization of consumption patterns favoring the universal presence of large brands, including luxury brands oriented to the growing number of large fortunes in India and China. This tendency grew with the global financial crisis, to the extent that two thirds of the GDP growth rate is no longer originated in the affluent countries but in emerging economies instead.

In order to grasp the dimension of this emerging world one needs only to remember there are already eighty countries growing at a higher rate than the United States. If this process continues at a similar pace and tendency, the global middle class amounting today to 1.8 billion people, would reach 4.9 billion by 2030 (over a world population of 8.3 billion) and 80% of its growth would take place in the emerging countries. In two decades the world would turn into a middle class society, framed in between two other groups: big millionaires on one hand and, on the other, an enormous proportion of poor people inhabiting countries that, because of natural resources' availability, economic subordination or poor political management, are not favored by the process of global development. In short, a global society with a large emerging middle class, concentration of wealth of unimaginable proportions and, consequently, growing inequity between both ends of the income distribution curve.

3. Production and consumption's subordination to financial capital

The third paradigm is the intensification and globalization of an old Marxist projection: financial capital's control over the productive process. In addition to the analysis by the classic authors, the sophistication, profoundness and extent this phenomenon has had over global capitalism must be considered. Almost without regulations and globalized, the financial system has managed to take over, control and submit to their own interests the production process and society as a whole: the generation of wealth gradually moves away from its original functions of acquiring risk in order to finance consumption and the generation of goods (intricate to industrial capitalism) and is transferred onto speculation and foul play, among others, the establishment of extremely sophisticated products that disguise toxic assets and promise high short-term profits. All of which is enhanced by the constant development of technology and communications.

This way, the energy once invested in generating wealth is transferred onto the generation and acquisition of papers and not assets, origin of the global crisis we are still immersed in. This process reached its pinnacle in the final stage of President Bush's administration where the degree of deregulation, already initiated during Clinton's administration, displayed its highest level. President Obama's administration hindered to some extent the perverse process of banking and capital market's deregulation. The same has happened in Europe with several initiatives from the European Central Bank, such as the course towards the Banking Union and the demands for banking capitalization. However, the intricate institutional network slows down the decision making process in the European Union while the financial sector continues to profit from the sovereign debt crisis and limit or freeze credit for companies and families, which gets in the way of recovery and deepens the economic, social and politic crisis in which Europe is in, especially Mediterranean Europe.

No doubt the banks are the veins through which runs the sage of the capitalist system: credit. Therefore, they are irreplaceable for the development of production, consumption and commerce. This has been taking place for decades since the industrial revolution. But once financial capital, banks and capital markets are released to their own dynamic and voracity, they go from being a platform that promotes real economy to being those who smother it. The management of financial resources is separated from their possession and the dynamic choking real economy is accelerated: the issue is that management logic is even much more voracious and short-termed. Economy transforms into a world of papers, whose values are generated and burnt depending more on speculative variables than on parameters related to employment, investment, profitability and innovation. The struggle to regulate the financial system in a way that it can return to its original function will condition the next few decades; the outcome is obviously uncertain. A fact to reflect upon: regulation and even ownership of the banks in China on behalf of the State is very important; perhaps there lays the great difference regarding the success of Asian development, which is still capitalism, before the western and Japanese's.

4. Crisis and reformulation of the Welfare State

In many European countries the Welfare State had reached its summit as an economic-institutional role model capable of generating wealth, wellbeing and a better income distribution. With the sovereign debt crisis certain veils are withdrawn exposing a highly indebted State and a public sector in deficit, which wastes resources, corrupt in several cases, but with a great ability to issue and place debt at low rates, covered by the Euro symbol, a coin with a presumably significant backing. Of course the financial system (mostly the German one) played its role and was accomplice to this fiction revolving the emission of large volumes of sovereign debt in order to finance a budgetary deficit with which the Welfare State in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland and other European countries was financed.

The destruction and particularly the reformulation of this structure in countries that up until recently were considered to be role models worldwide will require hard work while the suffering of those who have been victimized by the crisis worsens. It will be necessary to analyze more thoroughly the institutional organization and the process of generation and distribution of public assets that prevails in several Nordic countries, in which the Welfare State has resisted the strikes of the global crisis and of Europe in particular.

Ultimately and should there not be any further social and political transformations, the consolidation of the aforementioned tendencies will constitute a global economic scenario in which the financial system (slightly more regulated) will continue to control the production process that will continue to become more internationalized and fragmentized, progressively more oriented to fulfilling homogeneous and global reach consumption patterns.

Conflicts, different sorts of violence and insecurity

Roberto Sansón Mizrahi — 2013-05-22T16:25:45Z

What is the origin, the causes of insecurity? Insecurity appears associated to a diversity of sorts of violence that emerges from poorly resolved or unresolved conflicts. So, in order to appropriately face insecurity it will be necessary to effectively face the more serious conflicts every society has so that, in the course of their resolution, criminal, systemic and ideological-cultural violence can be taken down.

In contemporary societies insecurity is perceived as a threat that increases over time. It is debated whether insecurity in fact grows as a large share of the media argues and political interests usually from the opposition seize, or if what increases is the sensation of insecurity promoted by those political interests, the media aligned with them, other sensationalist media that focus their coverage on violent facts and a significantly grown industry of private security. Each side presents arguments, statistics and episodes to sustain its perspective. This is an issue that deserves to be rightfully elucidated so as not to fall into the error of a false perception; however, it is not the purpose of these lines.

In this article we are interested in exploring the origin, the causes of insecurity that, in most cases is associated with violence, actually with different sorts of violence since there is a wide variety of violence types. On their part, different sorts of violence usually emerge from unresolved or poorly resolved conflicts often due to abuses of power from one of the parties.

The individual reaction facing insecurity: protecting ourselves

The most common individual reaction when feeling insecure is seeking to protect ourselves. This can include a diversity of measures that go from adopting preventive behaviors (not circulating carelessly through areas that are considered dangerous, not displaying valuables or cash, etc.) up to building walls- material or immaterial- to isolate ourselves from contexts we consider threatening (living in gated communities, hiring private security, only frequenting areas of the city that are under surveillance, avoiding meeting new people, etc.). These measures limit our way of living and relating with others; we think we are more secure this way despite that the forms of violence that originate insecurity can always find ways to overcome the protection we adopt. There will not be enough protection to eliminate insecurity if the different sorts of violence that generate it (not only criminal violence against people) are not tackled and, therefore, as long as the diverse conflicts that lead to violent episodes are not properly resolved.

Types of violence

While all forms of violence emerge in a same economic and socio-cultural context, each type of violence presents singularities that distinguish it from the rest. There are very diverse ways of classifying violence depending on the perspective they are considered from. This article proposes differentiating (i) a criminal violence exercised by organized groups or isolated individuals against people and their belongings, (ii) a systemic violence that emerges from society's own way of functioning and (iii) an ideological or cultural violence exercised by those who hold economic and social hegemony. As mentioned earlier on, these types of violence emerge from conflicts that have been poorly resolved or unresolved. Moreover, when situations of violence burst, authorities deploy actions of containment that if surpass certain limits become a fourth type of violence: repressive violence.

Criminal violence

Criminal violence against people and their belongings manifests as robberies, assaults, kidnappings, killings, drug, guns and people trafficking, among many other modalities. Its existence is direct and visible, it involves one or several aggressors and one or several victims of that aggression; this unlike the systemic and cultural violence whose effects are devastating for vast population segments and are perpetrated through subtle mechanisms and procedures.

There is a significant distinction within criminal violence between crimes committed by organized crime and those executed by individuals with or without accomplices. Organized crime operations present extremely serious problems since its scale and economic power enable complicities in the State apparatus, financial entities [1] and within repressive forces themselves. Bringing down these criminal organizations is not simple but the longer it takes to face them, the more they will become consolidated.

Crimes carried out by individuals have diverse levels of violence and their appearance is caused by a wide diversity of situations. Some people who commit crimes are extremely dangerous and their recovery is very uncertain while others are less dangerous and could fully recover if they were properly assisted. Therefore not all people who commit crimes can be dealt with the same way. However, repressive actions and judicial sentences tend to fall on those who cannot hire good criminal lawyers. There are plenty of cases where incarcerated people remain under custody for several years without conviction and others who without being guilty make a settlement with the court to receive lighter punishments.

Facing criminal violence against people and their belongings, prevention plays a preponderant role; so does the dissuasive presence of security forces. The complement of police repression is essential as long as it is exercised correctly within the margins and principles set by the law and regulated by the protocols of police intervention.

Systemic violence

Systemic violence refers to the violence generated by the way of functioning that is adopted or imposed in a society. Each way of social functioning imposes conditions in favor of some groups and at the expense of others. Systemic violence is a concealed violence whose nature needs to be disguised to minimize resistance from those who are affected and to protect the interests of those who are favored by it. Its effects can be dramatic on the human, political or economic rights of large majorities subdued to minorities who profit from the status quo; it can also happen that certain minorities are the ones to have their rights cut back.

Once they become aware of what is going on, those burdened by the prevailing way of functioning resist the conditions they consider unfair or illegitimate to which they are subdued and seek to transform them. If there were peaceful or democratic ways available to achieve the sought transformation, the conflicts inherent to the institutional dynamic that needs to be removed are resolved without violence: systemic violence is tackled and violent resistance is avoided. In turn, if democratic paths of transformation were blocked by traps and mechanisms controlled by privilege [2] , sooner or later there comes a point of no-tolerance regarding the hegemonic logic that punishes and subdues. That is when episodes of social resistance emerge which can involve different degrees and forms of violence used to face systemic violence.

When social violence is added to the systemic one spreading beyond sporadic episodes, society faces even greater insecurity. This affects those who suffer from the status quo but also those favored by the prevailing order. The ones who hold privileges count with a better level of protection but they cannot evade the consequences of being part of a society with higher degrees of violence. In any case, since they understand that the transformational action threatens their interests, they seek to block with all available means those seeking to remove their privileges. Thus, sectors' seeking to transform a way of functioning that concentrates economic, political and media power in few hands must face not only systemic violence but also repressive and cultural violence, as analyzed further on.

Let us see an example (and there are by the hundreds) to illustrate what was exposed as systemic violence. It is the case of the recurrent and extended tax evasion or tax avoidance –not isolated episodes that can be faced from the judicial economic crime orbit- practiced by large corporations almost with ensured impunity thanks to the contemporary financial licentiousness that operates in complicity with regulators and tax havens everyone knows and affluent countries shelter. This tax evasion of systemic nature is materialized through different mechanisms of extraction of value [3] ; one of them is the under billing of exports that uses triangulations with subsidiaries based in tax havens or jurisdictions of lenient regulations and controls. Quite a few corporations sell, let us say, for 100 to their subsidiaries what is worth 150 in the international market, this way avoiding to pay taxes (or significantly reducing their amount) in the producing country. It is a subtle mechanism, obviously not made transparent in annual tax depositions nor before the public opinion, but instead well masked as not to be caught (it hardly ever is). Its effects and the violence they exercise are, among others, the following:

Huge and permanent tax evasion due to which the State of the producing country has less resources to finance social services and productive infrastructure or, if it would seek not to affect the level of public services provision, would need to increase its indebtedness or fiscally burden other sectors that are not responsible for the evasion. Thus the systemic violence falls on enormous low and medium income sectors since they do not receive the benefits of the public expenditure that was deprived from financing, on the contributors who abide by the law and do not evade, and on the entire country that is subject to greater pressure to increase its sovereign indebtedness.

Capital flight of an important segment of national saving that compromises the national capacity of investing in its development and exercises violence upon productive chains, inputs suppliers and those who stay unemployed or underemployed.

Evading tax payment, corporations that exercise it get a higher profit margin than those who take full responsibility for their fiscal obligations, so there is a greater accumulation of economic power precisely among actors who ravage fiscal sovereignty, practice disloyal competition and devalue corporate responsibility within the business world. That higher economic power is projected on media and political control.

In order to materialize the recurrent evasion felony they count with the complicity of public officers and local professionals that become part of illegal networks, enlarging the sectors that support public policies aligned with the interests of the corporations they serve.

Ideological-cultural violence

Ideological violence, better referred to as cultural violence, is expressed through values and attitudes imposed by hegemonic sectors upon the rest of society. Those who are subdued to such cultural violence are burdened by it although they do not necessarily understand the magnitude of the damage it causes to their identities, interests and capacity to react.

Cultural violence complements and intends to rig systemic violence through ideas, symbols, expressions, regulations, media messages, educational contents, that value the prevailing way of functioning, the presumed merits of those exercising economic and media power, the consequent status quo. At the same time, cultural violence devalues certain values, behaviors and attitudes of large population majorities that are poorly considered in cultural and labor terms. By imposing ideas and statements the aim is to legitimate the established order and concealing the true existing power relationships.

This way cultural violence makes individualism prevail above the interests and trajectory of the social conglomerate, praises profit as the motivation to embark on economic activities instead of considering enterprises and market as mechanisms to fulfill human needs, supports manipulated democracies instead of full democracies, masks the environment´s exploitation instead of promoting its care and preservation.

How to face insecurity?

This is the subject of an upcoming article but it is worth advancing some general criteria that, at the same time, serve as a conclusion for these lines. It has been said that insecurity, felt or real, does not respond to a single type of violence but to diverse forms of violence of very different nature. We would be falling into a dangerous reductionism if we narrow down the causes of insecurity to the mere existence of criminal violence against people and their belongings which, as it was pointed out, is the one that is most perceived because aggressors and victims are easily identifiable. Contrarily, there are other sorts of violence that over-condition and overlap with criminal violence; those are the systemic violence derived from a society´s own way of functioning and the cultural one which legitimizes systemic violence. It is that complex interaction of different sorts of violence what constitutes situations of insecurity.

In short, more and more people with experience in this subject step away from the ineffective hegemonic approach employed to face insecurity. It is emphasized instead the need to identify insecurity´s underlying causes, starting at a first level by distinguishing the different types of violence that create insecurity and progressing, at a second level, upon severe poorly resolved or unresolved conflicts which is from where the different forms of violence that burden contemporary societies emerge. Obviously insecurity is not an inexplicable fact that emerges untimely and without cause; it is a traumatic fact whose genesis is associated with how economic and cultural relationships among people and organizations in each of our countries and the world as a whole are established.

[1] They have stolen even spring from us.

[2] Democratic traps: solving them by deepening democracy.

[3] Differentiating generation, redistribution and extraction of value.

The visible and the underlying

2013-05-22T15:54:51Z

Enduring them, we perceive the dimension and severity of the situations that strike us; not always do we identify with the same clarity the underlying causes that generate ¨what is visible¨ of every situation. When facing burdensome situations claims emerge, resistance grows, we turn to emergency solutions. They are necessary responses to face the strain of what oppresses and be able to keep living as we can. However, if the ultimate purpose is to remove the causes and transform the processes and dynamics that lead us to what is currently happening, this means considering ¨the underlying¨, it will be necessary to resort to understanding in order to comprehend how and why what punishes and subdues occurred. Well developed, understanding helps adopt real transformational solutions.

From its inception, Opinión Sur has focused on trying to unravel underlying processes that generate problematic situations. In this issue three important matters are tackled: tendencies that have been emerging in the march of global economy, causes and origin of situations of insecurity, and critical challenges faced by China, the largest emerging economy. We trust they will be of your interest.

Cordial greeting.

The Editors

Reflexões

2013-05-17T16:14:45Z

Sobre o resplendor que toda pessoa emite
Sobre a Igreja Católica
Sobre a quinta economia do mundo

Sobre o resplendor que toda pessoa emite

Até os homens mais opacos emitem algum resplendor. E poucos há que não possam nos ensinar alguma coisa. Nosso grande erro está em tratar de obter de cada um em particular as virtudes que não possui, descuidando de cultivar aquelas que possui.

Marguerite Yourcenar

Sobre a Igreja Católica

Viemos de um inverno tenebroso e muito forte. Agora chega a primavera. Francisco é um pastor próximo do povo, que não vem como professor para ditar doutrinas, mas para animar a fé.

Leonardo Boff

Sobre a quinta economia do mundo

Argentina e Brasil, juntos, são a quinta economia do mundo, com um PIB de quase três trilhões de dólares e um mercado interno próximo aos 250 milhões de consumidores.

Claudio Scaletta

Iniciativas

2013-05-17T16:13:18Z

Formação médica inovadora
Fórum Nacional de Turismo Rural
África: fuga de capitais e dívida odiosa

Formação médica inovadora

A Universidade de Matanza, na Argentina, oferece uma carreira inovadora de Medicina: aspira à excelência, está orientada para a saúde, a formação do médico combina permanente capacidade de aprender e investigar e facilita uma preferência laboral para trabalhar em âmbitos sociais e territoriais onde mais se necessita de sua presença. Aspectos distintivos da carreira são: (i) currículo integrado e centrado no estudante; (ii) articulação desde o começo com clínica médica; (iii) orientação comunitária: (iv) prática reflexiva e (v) aprendizagem baseada em problemas.

Mais informações

Fórum Nacional de Turismo Rural

A ser realizado em Buenos Aires em 15 de maio de 2013, tem como objetivo posicionar a atividade desenvolvendo seu potencial de crescimento, sua capacidade de gerar emprego e reivindicando o impacto democratizador que exerce sobre o turismo ao distribuir renda em todos os rincões do país.

Mais informações

África: fuga de capitais e dívida odiosa

A África perdeu 1,6 trilhões de dólares em fuga de capitais e dívida odiosa nos últimos 40 anos com a conivência de grandes bancos, de acordo com pesquisa recente.

Mais informações

O “Sonho chinês” e seus desafios

Martin Khor — 2013-05-17T03:30:00Z

Na semana passada se completou a passagem de liderança na China com Xi Jinping como novo presidente e Li Kegiang como novo Primeiro Ministro. O presidente Xi pôs o mundo a especular quando falou de “esforçar-se para alcançar o sonho chinês do grande rejuvenescimento da nação chinesa”. Um jornal ocidental comentou que era um sonho coletivo nacional, contrastando-o desfavoravelmente com o “sonho americano” de conceder aos indivíduos igualdade de oportunidades. Mas, para os chineses, o prometido renascimento da nação é uma recordação da humilhação coletiva durante a era colonial e o “sonho” de recuperar sua posição previa como líder mundial em ciência, tecnologia, economia e cultura.

O elevado crescimento em décadas recentes impulsionou a economia e a confiança da China. Ainda assim, os novos líderes da China enfrentam desafios muito sérios que devem ser encarados para que o “sonho chinês” se materialize.

Primeiro está a necessidade de combater a corrupção generalizada. Convertendo-a em sua principal prioridade, o Presidente Xi advertiu que a corrupção poderia levar “ao colapso do Partido e à queda do Estado”. Os novos líderes costumam prometer acabar com a corrupção mas poucos conseguiram. Se o Presidente Xi ganhar esta batalha, será uma grande conquista.

Em segundo lugar, encontram-se os procedimentos administrativos e o abuso de poder oficial que causam tão grande ineficiência até em nível local. Em sua primeira conferência de imprensa, o Primeiro Ministro Li prometeu revolucionar o sistema, reconhecendo as dificuldades de “remover interesses criados”. Prometeu que um terço dos 1.700 itens que requerem a aprovação de departamentos governamentais seriam extintos. A frugalidade será o novo selo distintivo. Serão reduzidos gastos em escritórios governamentais, edifícios, viagens e recepções (não mais grandes banquetes oficiais!) e a poupança será redirecionada para o desenvolvimento social.

Em terceiro lugar, estão as complexidades de dirigir a grande e complicada economia chinesa. A China parece crescer entre 7 e 8% anuais. O resto da economia global se encontra, entretanto, em mal estado. O país deve, por fim, mudar de um crescimento impulsionado pela exportação a outro sustentado pela demanda interna, e passar de um crescimento impulsionado pelo investimento a outro baseado no consumo interno. A implementação dessa nova estratégia de crescimento aceita pelo governo não é simples. Também estão os desafios de administrar a moeda, as enormes reservas internacionais e a regulação de fluxos de capital, com o objetivo de que a atividade financeira sirva à economia real e não se converta em uma fonte de nova instabilidade. Em comércio exterior, a China tem tido muito êxito em formar um poderoso maquinário de exportação. Mas o crescimento das exportações para o Ocidente está diminuindo devido à quase recessão e novas formas de proteção (como aumentos tarifários utilizando medidas antidumping e antisubsídios) se aplicam cada vez mais as importações chinesas. Ao mesmo tempo, outros países em desenvolvimento começam a ser cautelosos com suas crescentes importações de bens chineses a custo baixo. Como a China pode ser sensível a suas preocupações e se esforçar para assegurar um maior equilíbrio e mutualidade de benefícios?

Em quarto lugar, estão os problemas sociais da China. A pobreza, todavia, é significativa em muitas áreas. As desigualdades sociais pioraram, com amplas distâncias de renda entre ricos e pobres e população urbana e população rural que são politicamente desestabilizantes. Redistribuir a renda para os grupos de menor renda pode cumprir duas metas: reduzir as desigualdades sociais e prover a demanda que sustente um crescimento impulsionado pelo consumo. As políticas podem incluir aumentos salariais, provisão de serviços sociais por parte do governo e transferência de renda aos pobres.

Em quinto lugar está a necessidade de abater as crises ambientais na China, as quais incluem escassez de água potável, mais inundações, mudança climática e poluição do ar urbano. Recentes estudos mostram os riscos à saúde com a piora da poluição do ar, incluindo sua relação com as 2.6 milhões de pessoas que morrem de câncer anualmente. Muitos dos protestos na China nos últimos anos têm se relacionado a problemas ambientais, incluindo indústrias contaminantes localizadas próximas das comunidades. Como a China pode integrar preocupações ecológicas em sua estratégia de desenvolvimento?

Em sexto lugar estão as relações internacionais da China. A semana passada o Presidente Xi reafirmou o princípio chinês de “desenvolvimento pacífico” e que o país jamais buscará a hegemonia. É necessário resolver as diferentes demandas por parte da China e outros países do leste asiático sobre o Mar da China Meridional de forma adequada e pacífica, reforçando a confiança de seus vizinhos sobre este princípio. A China, que ainda é, em grande medida, um país em desenvolvimento em termos de renda per capita e outras características, também se deve alinhar com o resto do mundo em desenvolvimento quanto às negociações e relações internacionais. Ao mesmo tempo, espera-se que conceda preferências e assistência especial aos países mais pobres e que seus investimentos no estrangeiro sejam social e ambientalmente responsáveis. Mais difícil para a China é manejar habilmente as relações internacionais com países desenvolvidos, especialmente os Estados Unidos. A China é uma potência em ascensão ou já constituída, e é percebida com certa inveja como um rival por aqueles que temem perder sua anterior dominação. Manter estabilidade política com essas potências é importante, mas, obviamente, isso não depende da China unicamente.

Os anteriores são somente alguns dos obstáculos que a China enfrenta em seu caminho para materializar o sonho de rejuvenescimento. Como acontece com qualquer sonho, não é impossível de alcançar, mas o caminho é longo e difícil.

www.triplecrisis.com

Paradigmas que condicionam o curso da economia global

Carlos Garramón — 2013-05-17T03:22:30Z

Este artigo destaca quatro emergentes paradigmas de forte incidência sobre o rumo da economia global: (i) a fragmentação e dispersão geográfica do processo capitalista de produção; (ii) a universalização e homogenização das pautas de consumo; (iii) a insubordinação da produção e do consumo ao capital financeiro e (iv) a crise e reformulação do Estado do bem-estar.

1. Fragmentação e dispersão geográfica do processo capitalista de produção

Nas últimas décadas, produziu-se um verdadeiro movimento sísmico no processo de produção global. Centenas de grandes empresas americanas e algumas europeias deslocaram parte ou grande parte de sua cadeia de produção e distribuição para a China, a Índia e outros países asiáticos, induzidas pelas vantagens comparativas proporcionadas por baixos salários, recursos humanos de aceitável qualidade em nível técnico e gerencial, e um dos mercados internos em franca expansão nos países receptores. Isso gerou uma fragmentação e dispersão geográfica do processo capitalista de produção, o qual se converteu em um processo “desnacionalizado” que aliena e fragmenta os conceitos de “nação” e “indústria”; transforma-se a categoria que dominou a análise do capitalismo industrial, a tomada de decisões e a geração de políticas durante décadas: “a indústria nacional”. Essa profunda mudança estrutural forma um novo paradigma que se consolidará à medida que a internacionalização industrial e sua fragmentação se vejam facilitadas pela experiência acumulada, a tecnologia e os avanços em matéria de comunicação, transporte e logística.

2. Universalização e homogenização das pautas de consumo

Concomitante com a internacionalização e fragmentação do processo de produção, desenvolveu-se um processo de universalização e homogenização das pautas de consumo em nível mundial. Essa tendência emergiu faz um bom tempo mas se acelerou na última década, fundamentalmente alentada pelo crescimento da classe média nos países emergentes da Ásia, África e América Latina. Somente na China, nos últimos 30 anos, 700 milhões de pessoas saíram da pobreza e se incorporaram à classe média.

O novo fenômeno de crescimento da classe média em vários países emergentes é a base estrutural da globalização das pautas do consumo favorecendo a presença universal das grandes marcas, incluindo marcas de luxo orientadas ao crescente número de grandes fortunas na Índia e na China. Essa tendência se acentuou com a crise financeira mundial, na medida em que dois terços da taxa de crescimento do produto global já não se originam nos países afluentes, mas em economias emergentes.

Para dimensionar este mundo emergente, basta recordar que já são 80 os países que crescem a uma taxa superior à dos Estados Unidos. Se esse processo continuasse com similar ritmo e tendência, a classe média global, que hoje chega a 1,8 bilhões de pessoas, alcançaria 4,9 bilhões em 2030 (sobre uma população mundial de 8,3 bilhões) e 80% do seu crescimento teria lugar em países emergentes. Em duas décadas o mundo se converteria em uma sociedade de classe média, demarcada por outros dois grupos: grandes milionários, por um lado, e, por outro, uma enorme proporção de pobres habitando países que, por dotação de recursos naturais, subordinação econômica ou má gestão política, não se favorecem do processo de desenvolvimento global. Isto é, uma sociedade global com uma grande classe média emergente, uma concentração de riqueza de uma magnitude inimaginável e, como consequência, uma crescente desigualdade entre ambos os extremos da curva de distribuição da renda.

3. Subordinação da produção e do consumo ao capital financeiro

O terceiro paradigma é o aprofundamento e a globalização de uma velha previsão marxista: o controle do processo produtivo pelo capital financeiro. À análise dos clássicos sobre a dialética capitalista há que se adicionar a sofisticação, a profundidade e o alcance que esse fenômeno teve sobre o capitalismo global. Sem quase regulações e globalizado, o sistema financeiro logrou dominar, controlar e submeter a seus próprios interesses o processo de produção e a sociedade em seu conjunto: a geração de riqueza que aparta gradualmente de suas funções originais a aquisição de risco para financiar o consumo e a geração de bens (próprias do capitalismo industrial) e se traslada para a especulação e as más práticas, entre outras, a estruturação de sofisticadíssimos produtos que disfarçam ativos tóxicos e prometem altos ganhos de curto prazo. Tudo isso potencializado pelo constante desenvolvimento da tecnologia e as comunicações.

Desse modo, a energia antes voltada para a geração de riqueza se traslada para a geração e aquisição de papeis e não de bens, origem da crise mundial em que ainda seguimos imersos. Esse processo alcançou sua máxima expressão ao final do governo do presidente Bush, em que o grau de desregulação, já iniciada na presidência de Clinton, exibiu seu máximo nível. O governo do presidente Obama freou em alguma medida o perverso processo de desregulamentação bancária e do mercado de capitais. O mesmo ocorreu na Europa com várias iniciativas do Banco Central Europeu, como o caminho iniciado em direção à União Europeia e as exigências de capitalização bancária. Não obstante, a intrincada rede institucional torna muito lento o processo de tomada de decisões na União Europeia enquanto que o setor financeiro continua levando vantagens da crise de dívida soberana e restringindo ou congelando o crédito a empresas e suas famílias, o que obstaculiza a recuperação e agrava a crise econômica, social e política em que está submergida a Europa, fundamentalmente a Europa mediterrânea.

Não há dúvida de que os bancos são as nervuras por onde corre a seiva do sistema capitalista: o crédito. Por fim, são insubstituíveis para que a produção, o consumo e o comércio se desenvolvam. Isso aconteceu durante décadas desde a revolução industrial. Porém, quando o capital financeiro, bancos e mercado de capitais ficam livres em sua própria dinâmica e voracidade, de plataforma propulsora da economia real passam a ser protagonistas de sua asfixia. A gestão dos recursos financeiros se separa da propriedade dos mesmos e a dinâmica que asfixia a economia real se acelera: é que a lógica do management é ainda muito mais voraz e curto-prazista. A economia se transforma em um mundo de papel, cujos valores se geram e se queimam dependendo mais de variáveis especulativas que de parâmetros vinculados ao trabalho, o investimento, a rentabilidade e a inovação. A batalha pela regulamentação do sistema financeiro de modo que retorne à sua função original condicionará as próximas décadas; o resultado é obviamente incerto. Um fato para refletir: a regulamentação e, inclusive, a propriedade dos bancos na China por parte do Estado é muito importante; quiçá, aí se aninhe a grande diferença no êxito do desenvolvimento asiático, que segue sendo capitalismo, diante do ocidental e japonês.

4. Crise e reformulação do Estado de Bem-estar

Em muitos países europeus, o Estado de Bem-estar havia alcançado seu apogeu como modelo econômico-institucional capaz de gerar riqueza, bem-estar e uma melhor distribuição da renda. Com a crise de dívida soberana se levantam certos véus e fica a descoberto um Estado altamente endividado e um setor público deficitário, esbanjador, corrupto em muitos casos, mas com uma grande habilidade para emitir e colocar a dívida a baixas taxas, encobertas sob a figura do euro, uma moeda com um suposto grande respaldo. Por óbvio que o sistema financeiro (fundamentalmente o alemão) desempenhou seu papel e foi cúmplice desta ficção em torno da emissão de grandes volumes de dívida soberana para financiar um déficit orçamentário com o que se financiava o Estado de Bem-estar na Grécia, na Espanha, na Itália, em Portugal, na Irlanda e em outros países europeus.

A destruição e, em particular, a reformulação dessa estrutura em países que até há poucos anos eram considerados como referência em escala mundial, irá requerer árduo trabalho, enquanto que se agrava o sofrimento dos que têm sido vitimizados pela crise. Haverá que se analisar com mais detalhamento a organização institucional e o processo de geração e distribuição dos bens públicos que predomina em vários países nórdicos, nos quais o Estado do Bem-estar tem resistido aos embates da crise global e da Europa em particular.

Em definitivo e se não mediar transformações mais profundas de natureza política e social, a consolidação das tendências destacadas configuram um cenário econômico global no qual o sistema financeiro (algo mais regulado) continuará controlando o processo de produção que avançará em sua internacionalização e segmentação, cada vez mais orientado a satisfazer pautas de consumo homogêneas e de alcance global.